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A key driver of the upward trend in 2023 was the increase in international and national passenger traffic, with the passenger aviation sector estimated to represent more than 80% of global jet fuel consumption.
Progress towards recovery continues into 2024, underscoring the industry’s resilience and adaptability. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPKs) saw a 16.6% growth in January 2024 compared to the previous year, with traffic levels reaching 99.6% of 2019 levels. (Source: Air Passenger Market Analysis [iata.org] [iata.org])
Despite facing challenges such as labour shortages, supply chain limitations, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties, airlines have achieved traffic levels equivalent to 89% of pre-pandemic levels. (Source: IATA – Chart of the Week, 9 February 2024)
BloombergNEF (BNEF) anticipates jet fuel demand will reach pre-pandemic levels by 2025, driven by sustained air travel demand and limited decarbonisation alternatives. Despite efforts for greener solutions, jet fuel remains a significant contributor to annual oil demand growth, notably evidenced in 2023 when China resumed flights after lifting Covid-related travel bans.
Air traffic within Asia saw a remarkable 127% surge in 2023 compared to 2022 levels, and China’s jet fuel demand surge has been one of the main drivers of oil demand growth globally. (Source: Air Passenger Market Analysis [iata.org] [iata.org])
The chart below shows the Differential between Jet NWE Cargo Swap (the main European Benchmark) and Gasoil Swap as of Tuesday 12th March close. Data is sourced directly from Tradition’s Middle Distillate desk.
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